Prediction Market Advisory & Platform Support

Define the event contract and the operating model

Prediction markets allow participants to take positions on the outcome of events. A product may use binary contracts, a wider set of outcomes, an order book or another pricing mechanism. Its regulatory treatment depends on its structure, the underlying events, the activities performed and the locations involved. Calling a platform a prediction market does not answer those questions.

iGaming Firm can help founders and suppliers turn a concept into a clear brief for legal, technical and commercial assessment. We support the documentation of the product, provider comparisons, contracts and operational responsibilities. Where financial services regulation is engaged, the work should include appropriate specialist counsel rather than assume a gaming licence covers the model.

Financial regulation and gambling law need separate attention

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission explains event contracts within its derivatives framework, including contracts linked to yes-or-no outcomes. Its prediction markets guidance provides a useful introduction to those products. That does not establish that every platform, contract or route to customers is authorised.

The interaction between federal regulation, state gambling laws and individual product restrictions has been actively contested, as illustrated by the CFTC’s announcement of litigation against New York. As a planning matter, a business should obtain a current assessment of its exact product and intended distribution. We do not present federal registration, an offshore entity or a conventional casino licence as a universal answer to market access.

Product design can materially change the analysis. Contracts linked to securities, sports, political events or other outcomes should not be grouped together without examining their characteristics. Marketing, introducing customers, operating an exchange and providing technology can also raise different questions.

Map the role your business will perform

A project brief should identify whether the business intends to operate the market, supply software, introduce customers, provide liquidity or publish information. It should explain where customer money or assets are held, how orders are matched, which entity contracts with users and who makes settlement decisions.

We help convert those answers into an entity and responsibility map. This lets legal advisers assess the right activities and gives technical providers a clear specification. It also makes dependencies visible: a planned commercial launch may depend on permissions or services held by another party, and those dependencies need verification.

Settlement rules are part of the product

Every market needs a precise description of the event, the relevant time, the information source and how the outcome will be determined. The rules should explain ambiguous results, cancellations, delayed information, source corrections and disputes. A broad statement that an external data source will decide is not enough if that source can change or become unavailable.

The product team should test the rules against difficult examples before launch. What happens if an event is postponed? Which timezone applies? Does a revised official result change settlement? Who can intervene, and what record is retained? Our commercial legal support can help align the platform agreement, data supplier terms and customer-facing rules.

Market integrity, conflicts and information access

Monitoring should consider manipulation, conflicts of interest and misuse of non-public information. The relevant controls depend on the product and regulatory framework, but clear ownership is essential. Staff access, supplier relationships and the powers to suspend a market should be documented and technically supported.

We can help prepare operational policies and contractual requirements for review with the relevant specialists. A platform's surveillance features need to be demonstrated against the business's proposed use, rather than accepted as a general assurance that all integrity risks are covered.

Platform sourcing and commercial evaluation

A provider comparison can examine matching and pricing functionality, settlement tooling, audit trails, reporting, permissions, customer support, security and business continuity. It should also identify which regulatory and operational responsibilities remain with the customer. Terms such as white label, exchange-as-a-service and turnkey are commercial descriptions whose contents vary.

Our platform sourcing service can help turn the product brief into provider questions and a structured comparison. Where the arrangement involves tokens or wallets, the crypto workstream can support the payment and asset-flow questions without assuming the product is a casino.

How we can help

We can support an initial feasibility brief, specialist adviser coordination, provider selection, contract review and operational documentation. The scope should be agreed after understanding the proposed events, target users, role of the business and funding model.

Are prediction markets the same as sportsbooks?

They can share subject matter, but product structure and regulatory treatment may differ. The analysis should examine the actual contract and activities rather than rely on the label or the fact that both involve uncertain outcomes.

Can we launch internationally using one permission?

Market access must be assessed for each intended jurisdiction and activity. A permission held by a provider also needs to be checked against the precise service and distribution arrangement it proposes to offer you.

This page provides general information and describes potential advisory support. It is not a legal opinion on a particular business, product or market. Scope and any specialist local advice are agreed for each engagement.